Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 08/07, 12:00
Prediction: Aljaz Jeran vs Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Aljaz Jeran; the market gives 81% to Aljaz Jeran (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Aljaz Jeran sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru arrives on a 3-7 run.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aljaz Jeran 1502 · Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru 1487
| Aljaz Jeran | Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Aljaz Jeran | Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-8.3 | 9.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aljaz Jeran
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Niccolo Baroni M15 Store |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Bor Artnak M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/06 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Lilian Marmousez M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 06/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/06 | Mak Mikovic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Lautaro Agustin Falabella M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Giuseppe La Vela M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Cesar Stefan Bentzel M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Calin Apostol M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/02 | Yashwin Krishnakumar UTR Pro Henderson · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 23/02 | Andre Alcantara UTR Pro Henderson · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Benjamin Berger UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Arin Pallegar UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/11 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/10 | Maciej Rajski UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/10 | William Zhang UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aljaz Jeran vs Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru?
Our model gives 68% to Aljaz Jeran, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.