Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Ergi Kirkin vs Valentin Vanta
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Ergi Kirkin; the market gives 86% to Ergi Kirkin (odds 1.10).
Recent form leaves Ergi Kirkin with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Valentin Vanta has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ergi Kirkin 1475 · Valentin Vanta 1471
| Ergi Kirkin | Valentin Vanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ergi Kirkin | Valentin Vanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.6 | 9-9.5 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 54.3% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ergi Kirkin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Hazem Naw M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 19/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Danil Panarin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Anas Bennour Dit Sahli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Vuk Radjenovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Nikita Mashtakov M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Radovan Michalik M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Valentin Vanta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Iulius Maximus Stoica M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexey Dubinin M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 19/05 | Phil Dungs M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/03 | Daniel Lechner M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 03/03 | Arthur Laborde M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-9 | L |
| 22/02 | Stefan Adrian Andreescu UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/02 | Gabriel Ghetu UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 8-18 | L |
| 18/02 | Stefan Horia Haita UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Calin Apostol UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 16/02 | Amar Huseinovikj UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ergi Kirkin vs Valentin Vanta?
Our model gives 70% to Ergi Kirkin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.