Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 08/07, 17:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes; the market gives 72% to Juan Pablo Varillas (odds 1.30).
On recent form, Juan Pablo Varillas is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 6-4 over theirs.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1500 · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1548
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes (rating 1500 vs 1548).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.6 | 12.6-11 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/04 | Victor Braga Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/04 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/03 | Alex Barrena Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Felipe Rivadeneira Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Zsombor Velcz ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/10 | Asahi Harazaki ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Keegan Smith ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Raphael Perot ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexander Kotzen ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 18/09 | Orel Kimhi ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Timo Legout ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes?
Our model gives 59% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.