Tennis · WTA Bastad · 08/07, 11:00
Prediction: Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosa
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Emiliana Arango; the market gives 72% to Paula Badosa (odds 1.30).
On recent form, Emiliana Arango is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Paula Badosa 4-6 over theirs.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emiliana Arango 1504 · Paula Badosa 1463
| Emiliana Arango | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emiliana Arango (rating 1504 vs 1463).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Emiliana Arango | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.5 | 10.5-12 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 41.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.4
Over 20.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 41% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emiliana Arango
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Lea Nilsson WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Caty McNally WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Maya Joint WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Sofia Johnson WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Alycia Parks WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Anna Bondar WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Marina Bassols Ribera French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Anna Bondar WTA Rabat · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Ella Seidel WTA Rabat · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Coco Gauff WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Julia Grabher WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Eva Lys WTA Stuttgart · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 07/04 | Lilli Tagger WTA Linz · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/04 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Charleston · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 60% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.