Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 07/07, 18:30
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Fermin Tenti
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Nicolas Mejia; the market gives 87% to Nicolas Mejia (odds 1.08).
On recent form, Nicolas Mejia is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Fermin Tenti 5-5 over theirs.
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1537 · Fermin Tenti 1509
| Nicolas Mejia | Fermin Tenti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Fermin Tenti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-13.4 | 10.8-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 56.5% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 31% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Henrique Rocha Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Justin Boulais Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Henry Searle Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Fermin Tenti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Peter Bertran Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Cesar Ariel Hidalgo Aguirre Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/05 | Nick Hardt Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Nicolas Villalon Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/05 | Rai Vicente de Araujo Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/04 | Felipe De Dios UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 07/04 | Nocolas A Jara Lozano UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/03 | Juan Ignacio Gallego M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Fermin Tenti?
Our model gives 72% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.