Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Niccolo Ciavarella vs Ilya Snitari
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Ilya Snitari; the market gives 77% to Ilya Snitari (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Niccolo Ciavarella with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Ilya Snitari has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Ciavarella 1409 · Ilya Snitari 1517
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Ilya Snitari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Snitari (rating 1409 vs 1517).
- Ilya Snitari is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Ilya Snitari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.3-11.7 | 11.2-9.4 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 60.5% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Ciavarella
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alessandro Coccioli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Luca Parenti M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 05/05 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Ilya Snitari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Semen Pankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 02/07 | Marko Bekeni M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Rihards Neimanis Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Doni Gashi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Aleksandre Bakshi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Kalin Ivanovski Davis Cup |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Erik Schiessl M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/05 | Darius Florin Pop M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Ciavarella vs Ilya Snitari?
Our model gives 71% to Ilya Snitari, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.