Prediction: Ryota Tanuma vs Kazuma Kawachi
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 70% to Ryota Tanuma; the market gives 87% to Ryota Tanuma (odds 1.08).
On recent form, Ryota Tanuma is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Kazuma Kawachi 5-5 over theirs.
79%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryota Tanuma 1595 · Kazuma Kawachi 1447
| Ryota Tanuma | Kazuma Kawachi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryota Tanuma (rating 1595 vs 1447).
- Ryota Tanuma is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ryota Tanuma 3–0 Kazuma Kawachi (3).
Statistics
| Ryota Tanuma | Kazuma Kawachi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-7.2 | 9.1-10.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 47% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.6
H2H · Ryota Tanuma 3 – 0 Kazuma Kawachi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ryota Tanuma 3–0 Kazuma Kawachi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/18 Challenger Kyoto Qual | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/07/16 ITF China F13 | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/03/16 ITF Japan F4 | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryota Tanuma
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Maximus Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Ren Nakamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Asahi Harazaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Diordan Macababbad UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toshiki Karigyo UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-7 | W |
Kazuma Kawachi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Masaki Tonaka UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Shion Yamada UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Asahi Harazaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/06 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Rishabdev Raman M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Sanhui Shin M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryota Tanuma vs Kazuma Kawachi?
Our model gives 79% to Ryota Tanuma, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.