Tennis · Challenger Newport · 06/07, 20:10
Prediction: Patrick Maloney vs Hayato Matsuoka
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka; the market gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka (odds 1.73).
On recent form, Patrick Maloney is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Hayato Matsuoka 4-6 over theirs.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Maloney 1461 · Hayato Matsuoka 1487
| Patrick Maloney | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Patrick Maloney dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Note: Patrick Maloney makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Patrick Maloney | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-10 | 10.5-11.8 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 2 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 47.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Maloney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Las Vegas · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Luca Pow Challenger Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Daniel Elahi Galan US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Chicago · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Maximus Jones Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/05 | Qian Sun Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Maloney vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.