Prediction: Andre Ilagan vs Alex Rybakov
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Andre Ilagan; the market gives 56% to Andre Ilagan (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Andre Ilagan with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Alex Rybakov has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
| Andre Ilagan | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andre Ilagan (rating 1563 vs 1499).
Statistics
| Andre Ilagan | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.5 | 12.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 49.3% |
H2H · Andre Ilagan 1 – 1 Alex Rybakov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andre Ilagan 1–1 Alex Rybakov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/25 Challenger Las Vegas | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07/25 Challenger Cary | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Connor Plunkett Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 04/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Fajing Sun Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Colton Smith Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Yasutaka Uchiyama Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Alex Rybakov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Joaquim Almeida M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/05 | Liam Krall M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Ryan Colby M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/05 | Justin Roberts M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 06/05 | Evan Bynoe M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/04 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Savannah · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/04 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/04 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andre Ilagan vs Alex Rybakov?
Our model gives 57% to Andre Ilagan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.