Tennis · Challenger Newport · 06/07, 22:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Aleksandar Vukic; the market gives 50% to Aleksandar Vukic (odds 1.83).
On recent form, Aleksandar Vukic is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Liam Broady 4-6 over theirs.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1500 · Liam Broady 1473
| Aleksandar Vukic | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.9 | 11.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 32.2% | 33.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | James Duckworth ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 14/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Rinky Hijikata Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | August Holmgren Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady?
Our model gives 52% to Aleksandar Vukic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.