Tennis · Challenger Newport · 07/07, 17:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Braden Shick
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Braden Shick; the market gives 44% to Braden Shick (odds 2.10).
Over their last 10 matches, Bernard Tomic sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Braden Shick arrives on a 7-3 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1469 · Braden Shick 1573
| Bernard Tomic | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braden Shick (rating 1469 vs 1573).
- Braden Shick is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.9 | 12.3-10 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 24.7% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/06 | Alec Deckers ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 30/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | William Manning M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 53% to Braden Shick, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.