Tennis · Challenger Newport · 06/07, 20:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Tristan Schoolkate
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to August Holmgren; the market gives 50% to August Holmgren (odds 1.83).
On recent form, August Holmgren is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Tristan Schoolkate 4-6 over theirs.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1499 · Tristan Schoolkate 1495
| August Holmgren | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.1 | 11.1-12.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 28.8% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 13/06 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Toby Samuel Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/06 | James Watt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Daniel Evans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Johannus Monday Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Kimmer Coppejans French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 29/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/04 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 50% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.