Tennis · Challenger Newport · 07/07, 17:00
Prediction: Murphy Cassone vs Darwin Blanch
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Darwin Blanch; the market gives 59% to Darwin Blanch (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Murphy Cassone sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Darwin Blanch arrives on a 5-5 run.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Murphy Cassone 1464 · Darwin Blanch 1505
| Murphy Cassone | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Blanch (rating 1464 vs 1505).
- Head-to-head: Murphy Cassone 1–0 Darwin Blanch (1).
Statistics
| Murphy Cassone | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.8 | 12.1-12.6 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 33.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8
H2H · Murphy Cassone 1 – 0 Darwin Blanch (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Murphy Cassone 1–0 Darwin Blanch
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/25 Challenger Sumter | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Murphy Cassone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Alex Molcan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Filippo Romano ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 03/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Liam Broady Challenger Busan · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Miami · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/03 | Francesco Maestrelli ATP Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/03 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Darwin Blanch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Tristan Schoolkate French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Timofey Skatov French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/05 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 02/05 | Jaime Faria Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Murphy Cassone vs Darwin Blanch?
Our model gives 58% to Darwin Blanch, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.