Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 07/07, 18:30
Prediction: Alex Hernandez vs Nick Hardt
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 70% to Nick Hardt; the market gives 79% to Nick Hardt (odds 1.17).
On recent form, Alex Hernandez is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Nick Hardt 6-4 over theirs.
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Hernandez 1500 · Nick Hardt 1651
| Alex Hernandez | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nick Hardt (rating 1500 vs 1651).
- Nick Hardt is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alex Hernandez | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (3) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-10.8 | 13.4-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 63.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 16/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Luis Felipe Miguel M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Pedro Rodrigues M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Jefferson Wendler Filho M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/05 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Naoya Honda Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 19/05 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Nick Hardt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Wilson Leite Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Nicolas Oliveira Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Carlos Maria Zarate M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Hernandez vs Nick Hardt?
Our model gives 75% to Nick Hardt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.