Tennis · WTA Bastad · 07/07, 11:00
Prediction: Linea Bajraliu vs Tamara Korpatsch
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Linea Bajraliu; the market gives 78% to Tamara Korpatsch (odds 1.20).
Recent form leaves Linea Bajraliu with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Tamara Korpatsch has piled up 2-8 in the same span.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Linea Bajraliu 1559 · Tamara Korpatsch 1515
| Linea Bajraliu | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linea Bajraliu (rating 1559 vs 1515).
- Linea Bajraliu is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Linea Bajraliu | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.3 | 10.6-12.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 59.7% |
| Break % | 59.6% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.9
Over 19.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 30% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Linea Bajraliu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Sandra Samir W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Jenny Lim W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jade Groen W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Dia Evtimova W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Lea Nilsson W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Vilma Krebs Hyllested W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/05 | Britt Du Pree W35 Bastad · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 15/05 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar W35 Bastad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 13/05 | Ella Haavisto W35 Bastad · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-2 | W |
Tamara Korpatsch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Mia Pohankova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Xinyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Sara Sorribes Tormo French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Alina Charaeva WTA Paris · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/05 | Clara Burel WTA Paris · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/05 | Ksenia Efremova WTA Paris · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Linea Bajraliu vs Tamara Korpatsch?
Our model gives 63% to Tamara Korpatsch, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.