Tennis · WTA Bastad · 07/07, 11:00
Prediction: Lisa Zaar vs Varvara Lepchenko
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lisa Zaar; the market gives 50% to Lisa Zaar (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Lisa Zaar sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Varvara Lepchenko arrives on a 5-5 run.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lisa Zaar 1535 · Varvara Lepchenko 1462
| Lisa Zaar | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lisa Zaar (rating 1535 vs 1462).
- Varvara Lepchenko dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 48.2% break avg.
- Lisa Zaar is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lisa Zaar | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.4 | 11.7-12.6 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 57.6% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.5
Over 21.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 40% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lisa Zaar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Madison Sieg W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Iva Ivanova W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Anastasia Bertacchi W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 30/05 | Laura Samsonova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 29/05 | Elena Ruxandra Bertea W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Xiaodi You W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Rasheeda McAdoo W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/05 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Rabat · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 17/05 | Alana Smith WTA Rabat · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 28/04 | Laura Pigossi WTA La Bisbal D'Emporda · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/04 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/04 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lisa Zaar vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Our model gives 55% to Lisa Zaar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.