Tennis · WTA Bastad · 06/07, 12:30
Prediction: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Darja Semenistaja
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Leyre Romero Gormaz; the market gives 50% to Leyre Romero Gormaz (odds 1.83).
Recent form leaves Leyre Romero Gormaz with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Darja Semenistaja has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leyre Romero Gormaz 1565 · Darja Semenistaja 1525
| Leyre Romero Gormaz | Darja Semenistaja | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leyre Romero Gormaz (rating 1565 vs 1525).
- Note: Leyre Romero Gormaz makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Leyre Romero Gormaz | Darja Semenistaja | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.7 | 11.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 59.8% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 46.5% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1
Over 21.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leyre Romero Gormaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Polina Iatcenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Mayar Sherif WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Xiaodi You WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 06/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06 | Carole Monnet WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/06 | Viola Turini WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Xiaodi You WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Jennifer Ruggeri W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Darja Semenistaja
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Nao Hibino Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Anna Siskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 10/06 | Laura Samsonova WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/06 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/06 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 04/06 | Akasha Urhobo WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Darja Semenistaja?
Our model gives 53% to Leyre Romero Gormaz, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.