Tennis · WTA Bastad · 06/07, 11:00
Prediction: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 66% to Noma Noha Akugue; the market gives 79% to Noma Noha Akugue (odds 1.17).
Over their last 10 matches, Noma Noha Akugue sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Irene Burillo Escorihuela arrives on a 2-8 run.
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Noma Noha Akugue 1503 · Irene Burillo Escorihuela 1384
| Noma Noha Akugue | Irene Burillo Escorihuela | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Noma Noha Akugue (rating 1503 vs 1384).
- Noma Noha Akugue dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 44.1% break avg.
- Noma Noha Akugue is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Noma Noha Akugue | Irene Burillo Escorihuela | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.5-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.4 | 7.6-13.6 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 50.5% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +3.9
Over 18.5: 75% · 1.80
Under 18.5: 25% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Noma Noha Akugue
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Katherine Sebov Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Lisa Pigato Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Rebeka Masarova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Miriam Bulgaru WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/05 | Sinja Kraus French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 18/05 | Tatiana Prozorova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Irene Burillo Escorihuela
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Beatrise Zeltina W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Tyra Caterina Grant W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Viktoriya Tomova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Lea Boskovic W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 06/05 | Mina Hodzic W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 21/04 | Ayla Aksu W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/04 | Marina Bassols Ribera W75 Portoroz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 06/04 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/03 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/03 | Caroline Werner WTA Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela?
Our model gives 74% to Noma Noha Akugue, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.