Prediction: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Matias Soto
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Juan Sebastian Osorio; the market gives 69% to Matias Soto (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Juan Sebastian Osorio sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Matias Soto arrives on a 7-3 run.
| Juan Sebastian Osorio | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Sebastian Osorio (rating 1587 vs 1510).
- Juan Sebastian Osorio dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Juan Sebastian Osorio is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Sebastian Osorio | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 86% (7) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-11.4 | 11.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 44% |
H2H · Juan Sebastian Osorio 1 – 1 Matias Soto (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Sebastian Osorio 1–1 Matias Soto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 Challenger Quito | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 21/08/24 ITF M25 Arequipa | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Sebastian Osorio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Peter Bertran Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Hayen Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Felipe Vazquez M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/06 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Brasilia |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 03/05 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 02/05 | Mwendwa Mbithi M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/05 | Ryan Dickerson M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/04 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/04 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 55% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.