Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 07/07, 17:00
Prediction: Alan Magadan vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Alan Magadan; the market gives 56% to Johan Alexander Rodriguez (odds 1.67).
On recent form, Alan Magadan is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Johan Alexander Rodriguez 5-5 over theirs.
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alan Magadan 1571 · Johan Alexander Rodriguez 1533
| Alan Magadan | Johan Alexander Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alan Magadan | Johan Alexander Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-9.3 | 11.2-10.4 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alan Magadan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Hyeon Chung M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Azuma Visaya UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Kosuke Shibano UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Johan Alexander Rodriguez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Wilson Leite Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/06 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/04 | Gus Grumet M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alan Magadan vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez?
Our model gives 51% to Johan Alexander Rodriguez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.