Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Valerio Aboian; the market gives 59% to Valerio Aboian (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Valerio Aboian sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes arrives on a 6-4 run.
| Valerio Aboian | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian 0–1 Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes (1).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.6 | 11.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 46.9% |
H2H · Valerio Aboian 0 – 1 Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 0–1 Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/24 Challenger Puerto Vallarta | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Mena Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/05 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/05 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Felipe Rivadeneira Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Zsombor Velcz ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/10 | Asahi Harazaki ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Keegan Smith ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Raphael Perot ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexander Kotzen ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 18/09 | Orel Kimhi ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Timo Legout ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 12/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes?
Our model gives 56% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.