Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 07/07, 17:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Bruno Fernandez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Juan Pablo Varillas; the market gives 73% to Juan Pablo Varillas (odds 1.28).
On recent form, Juan Pablo Varillas is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Bruno Fernandez 5-5 over theirs.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1493 · Bruno Fernandez 1419
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1493 vs 1419).
- Juan Pablo Varillas is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Bruno Fernandez makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.8 | 11.4-13.3 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/04 | Victor Braga Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/04 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/03 | Alex Barrena Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/03 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Bruno Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 12/05 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 04/05 | Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/04 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Bruno Fernandez?
Our model gives 67% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.