Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 05/07, 18:30
Prediction: Dmitry Popko vs Mateo Castaneda
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Dmitry Popko; the market gives 92% to Dmitry Popko (odds 1.02).
Recent form leaves Dmitry Popko with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Mateo Castaneda has piled up 2-8 in the same span.
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dmitry Popko 1480 · Mateo Castaneda 1439
| Dmitry Popko | Mateo Castaneda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dmitry Popko (rating 1480 vs 1439).
- Note: Dmitry Popko makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Mateo Castaneda makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Dmitry Popko | Mateo Castaneda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (3) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-14.3 | 7.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 59.2% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dmitry Popko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Andres Martin M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Jie Cui M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Zac Hamill M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Karl Poling M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Gavin Young M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Cannon Kingsley Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Mateo Castaneda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11 | Jesse Flores Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/11 | Santiago Lora ITF M25 Cochabamba |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/10 | Bruno Fernandez ITF M15 Ibague · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 29/10 | Michael Alejandro Beltran Rubio ITF M15 Ibague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/10 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior ITF M25 Salvador |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Jefferson Wendler Filho ITF M25 Barueri |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Salvador Price ITF M25 Londrina · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Gabriel Augusto Carvalho ITF M25 Londrina · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dmitry Popko vs Mateo Castaneda?
Our model gives 75% to Dmitry Popko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.