Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 05/07, 20:00
Prediction: Ignacio Monzon vs Nicolas Hurtado Novoa
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Ignacio Monzon; the market gives 91% to Ignacio Monzon (odds 1.02).
On recent form, Ignacio Monzon is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Nicolas Hurtado Novoa 3-7 over theirs.
76%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ignacio Monzon 1502 · Nicolas Hurtado Novoa 1449
| Ignacio Monzon | Nicolas Hurtado Novoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ignacio Monzon (rating 1502 vs 1449).
- Note: Nicolas Hurtado Novoa makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ignacio Monzon | Nicolas Hurtado Novoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.2 | 7.2-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 57.2% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ignacio Monzon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Sebastian Gomez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Julian Cundom Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/06 | Santiago Giamichelle Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 21/05 | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Mateo Del Pino M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Nicolas Hurtado Novoa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01 | Shu Muto M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/01 | Shu Muto M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/01 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 06/01 | Sebastian Heinrich M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 05/01 | Alexander Ilin M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/11 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios ITF M15 Valledupar |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 28/10 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios ITF M15 Ibague · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Aristotelis Thanos Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez ITF M15 Bucaramanga · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Michael Alejandro Beltran Rubio ITF M15 Bucaramanga · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ignacio Monzon vs Nicolas Hurtado Novoa?
Our model gives 76% to Ignacio Monzon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.