Tennis · Challenger Newport · 05/07, 21:00
Prediction: Matisse Farzam vs Hayato Matsuoka
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Matisse Farzam; the market gives 59% to Hayato Matsuoka (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Matisse Farzam with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Hayato Matsuoka has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matisse Farzam 1515 · Hayato Matsuoka 1471
| Matisse Farzam | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matisse Farzam (rating 1515 vs 1471).
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Matisse Farzam | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.2 | 11.1-12.9 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matisse Farzam
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Andres Martin M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 11/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Jonah Braswell M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/11 | Christopher Li M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/11 | Jordan Lee M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 12/11 | Benjamin Torrealba M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/10 | Theodore Dean ITF M15 Trois-Rivieres |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/10 | Alex Finkelstein ITF M15 Trois-Rivieres |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/10 | Aleksandr Kalinin UTR Pro Clemson · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Maximus Jones Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/05 | Qian Sun Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/04 | Keegan Smith Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matisse Farzam vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 52% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.