Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Taylor Fritz; the market gives 60% to Taylor Fritz (odds 1.57).
On recent form, Taylor Fritz is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alexander Bublik 4-6 over theirs.
| Taylor Fritz | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taylor Fritz (rating 1592 vs 1550).
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.8 | 1.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-13 | 16.7-16.7 |
| Aces | 16 | 19 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 82% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 38% | 26.8% |
H2H · Taylor Fritz 4 – 4 Alexander Bublik (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 4–4 Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 ATP Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/10/25 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09/22 Davis Cup | 2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 23/06/22 ATP Eastbourne | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/03/21 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 12/01/20 ATP Adelaide | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09/19 ATP Chengdu | 1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 02/07 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 18/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 14/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Jan-Lennard Struff French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-26 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik?
Our model gives 58% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.