Tennis · Challenger Newport · 05/07, 18:00
Prediction: Blake Ellis vs Garrett Johns
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Garrett Johns; the market gives 66% to Blake Ellis (odds 1.40).
Recent form leaves Blake Ellis with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Garrett Johns has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blake Ellis 1477 · Garrett Johns 1492
| Blake Ellis | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Blake Ellis makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Blake Ellis | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-14.1 | 10.8-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Andres Martin Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Tyler Zink Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/04 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/04 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/04 | Li Tu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Garrett Johns
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | Olaf Pieczkowski Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Eero Vasa Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/05 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Michalis Sakellaridis Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/04 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Jan Jermar Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/04 | Dominik Recek Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/04 | Pawel Juszczak Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/04 | Andrew Johnson Challenger Savannah · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blake Ellis vs Garrett Johns?
Our model gives 58% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.