Tennis · Challenger Newport · 05/07, 16:30
Prediction: Fajing Sun vs Ozan Baris
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 68% to Ozan Baris; the market gives 51% to Ozan Baris (odds 1.80).
Recent form leaves Fajing Sun with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Ozan Baris has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fajing Sun 1452 · Ozan Baris 1582
| Fajing Sun | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ozan Baris (rating 1452 vs 1582).
- Ozan Baris is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Fajing Sun | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.8 | 12.7-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fajing Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dakotah Bobo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 06/05 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 05/05 | Alex Bolt Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/05 | Coleman Wong Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/05 | Mark Lajal Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Ozan Baris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Blake Ellis Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/06 | James Trotter Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Maximus Dussault M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Justin Boulais M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fajing Sun vs Ozan Baris?
Our model gives 59% to Ozan Baris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.