Tennis · M15 Getxo · 05/07, 11:30
Prediction: Carles Hernandez vs Oscar Jose Gutierrez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Oscar Jose Gutierrez; the market gives 54% to Oscar Jose Gutierrez (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Carles Hernandez with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Oscar Jose Gutierrez has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carles Hernandez 1532 · Oscar Jose Gutierrez 1585
| Carles Hernandez | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oscar Jose Gutierrez (rating 1532 vs 1585).
Statistics
| Carles Hernandez | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.3 | 11.5-8 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 51% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carles Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Rafael Ymer M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Maxi Carrascosa Diaz M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Matthieu Chambonniere M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Vlado Jankanj M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 19/05 | Aleksa Oparnica M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Oscar Jose Gutierrez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Alejandro Garcia M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Daniel Verbeek M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Patrik Meszaros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Leyton Rivera M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Gabor Hornung M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carles Hernandez vs Oscar Jose Gutierrez?
Our model gives 55% to Oscar Jose Gutierrez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.