Prediction: Marcel Zielinski vs Carles Hernandez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Marcel Zielinski; the market gives 59% to Marcel Zielinski (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Marcel Zielinski with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Carles Hernandez has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcel Zielinski 1575 · Carles Hernandez 1486
| Marcel Zielinski | Carles Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marcel Zielinski (rating 1575 vs 1486).
- Marcel Zielinski is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Marcel Zielinski | Carles Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.5 | 12.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcel Zielinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Enrique Carrascosa Diaz M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Mario Arce Fernandez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Marlon Vankan M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 18/06 | Vincent Marysko M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Kaspar Mathes M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Gabriele Piraino M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Gian Marco Ortenzi M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Jacopo Antonelli M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Carles Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Rafael Ymer M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Maxi Carrascosa Diaz M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Matthieu Chambonniere M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Vlado Jankanj M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 19/05 | Aleksa Oparnica M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/04 | Tiago Torres M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 15/04 | Karol Filar M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcel Zielinski vs Carles Hernandez?
Our model gives 61% to Marcel Zielinski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.