Tennis · M15 Getxo · 04/07, 18:00
Prediction: Carles Hernandez vs Ignacio Parisca Romera
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Ignacio Parisca Romera; the market gives 65% to Ignacio Parisca Romera (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Carles Hernandez sits at 2-8 (W-L), while Ignacio Parisca Romera arrives on a 8-2 run.
61%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carles Hernandez 1510 · Ignacio Parisca Romera 1560
| Carles Hernandez | Ignacio Parisca Romera | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ignacio Parisca Romera (rating 1510 vs 1560).
- Note: Ignacio Parisca Romera makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Carles Hernandez | Ignacio Parisca Romera | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.4 | 10.7-7.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carles Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Rafael Ymer M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Maxi Carrascosa Diaz M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Matthieu Chambonniere M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Vlado Jankanj M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 19/05 | Aleksa Oparnica M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/04 | Tiago Torres M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Ignacio Parisca Romera
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Jordi Garcia Mestre M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Peru Bayo M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Victor Braga Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Federico Gaston Gonzalez Benitez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Alejandro Hayen Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Adrian Quiros Monterrey Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/06 | Yannik Alvarez Davis Cup |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carles Hernandez vs Ignacio Parisca Romera?
Our model gives 61% to Ignacio Parisca Romera, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.