Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 05/07, 12:00
Prediction: Patrick Schoen vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Patrick Schoen; the market gives 54% to Carl Emil Overbeck (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Patrick Schoen with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Carl Emil Overbeck has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Schoen 1588 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1588
| Patrick Schoen | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Patrick Schoen | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-8 | 12.4-7.5 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 77% |
| Break % | 60.3% | 41.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Schoen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Pereira M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Rigele Te M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly M25 Porto |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Dominique Rolland M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Vasco L Prata M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/05 | Romain Faucon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-7 | W |
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Tiago Cacao M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/06 | Mert Alkaya M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/06 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Porto |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mae Malige M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Schoen vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 52% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.