Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 03/07, 13:30
Prediction: Goncalo Marques vs Sebastian Dominko
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Sebastian Dominko; the market gives 72% to Sebastian Dominko (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Goncalo Marques with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Sebastian Dominko has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
67%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Goncalo Marques 1517 · Sebastian Dominko 1598
| Goncalo Marques | Sebastian Dominko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Dominko (rating 1517 vs 1598).
- Sebastian Dominko dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 51.9% break avg.
- Sebastian Dominko is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Goncalo Marques | Sebastian Dominko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.4 | 12.5-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 47.7% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Goncalo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Emile Hudd M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jeffrey Fradkin M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Anas Bennour Dit Sahli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Kaipo Marshall M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Hugo Coquelin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-9 | L |
| 10/05 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Sebastian Dominko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | John Echeverria M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Mert Alkaya M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniel Lara Salmeron M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/02 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/01 | Perry Gregg UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 10/01 | Poonthong Komopisut UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/01 | Noah Becker UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/01 | Luis Llorens Saracho UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/01 | Alexander Antonopoulos UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Ozan Baris ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Goncalo Marques vs Sebastian Dominko?
Our model gives 67% to Sebastian Dominko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.