Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 03/07, 13:30
Prediction: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Tiago Torres
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Tiago Torres; the market gives 65% to Tiago Torres (odds 1.44).
On recent form, Daniil Ostapenkov is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Tiago Torres 8-2 over theirs.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Ostapenkov 1558 · Tiago Torres 1574
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.5 | 12.7-8.9 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Ostapenkov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Lui Maxted M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Rohan Mehra M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tiago Pereira M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Guilherme Valdoleiros M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Robin Catry M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Adam Kaczmarek M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/05 | Vadym Ursu M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Tiago Torres
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Lucca Liu M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Lui Maxted M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 21/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | John Echeverria M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Ostapenkov vs Tiago Torres?
Our model gives 59% to Tiago Torres, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.