Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 04/07, 12:00
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Sebastian Dominko
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Sebastian Dominko; the market gives 69% to Carl Emil Overbeck (odds 1.36).
Recent form leaves Carl Emil Overbeck with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Sebastian Dominko has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1588 · Sebastian Dominko 1622
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Sebastian Dominko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 6 aces and 41.5% break avg.
- Sebastian Dominko dominates on serve: 8 aces and 56.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Sebastian Dominko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-8 | 12.8-8.2 |
| Aces | 6 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77% | 78.8% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 56.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Tiago Cacao M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/06 | Mert Alkaya M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/06 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Porto |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mae Malige M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Sebastian Dominko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Goncalo Marques M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | John Echeverria M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Mert Alkaya M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniel Lara Salmeron M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/02 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/01 | Perry Gregg UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 10/01 | Poonthong Komopisut UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/01 | Noah Becker UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/01 | Luis Llorens Saracho UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/01 | Alexander Antonopoulos UTR Pro South Bend · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Sebastian Dominko?
Our model gives 58% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.