Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Tiago Cacao vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Carl Emil Overbeck; the market gives 79% to Carl Emil Overbeck (odds 1.17).
Over their last 10 matches, Tiago Cacao sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Carl Emil Overbeck arrives on a 8-2 run.
70%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tiago Cacao 1528 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1590
| Tiago Cacao | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1528 vs 1590).
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tiago Cacao | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.1 | 12.2-7.8 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 76.9% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tiago Cacao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Joao Dinis Silva M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Karan Singh M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Goncalo Marques M25 Loule · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/04 | Joao Domingues M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
1-1 | 11-12 | L |
| 04/04 | Julio Cesar Porras UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/04 | Hugo Maia UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/04 | Oscar Brown UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/03 | Vitek Horak UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/03 | Fred Gil UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Carl Emil Overbeck
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/06 | Mert Alkaya M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/06 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Porto |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mae Malige M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Alec Deckers M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tiago Cacao vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 70% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.