Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Alex De Minaur; the market gives 74% to Alex De Minaur (odds 1.28).
Over their last 10 matches, Alex De Minaur sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Flavio Cobolli arrives on a 5-5 run.
| Alex De Minaur | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Flavio Cobolli dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 1–0 Flavio Cobolli (1).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.5 | 2.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-9.2 | 19.8-17.2 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 9.6 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 42.1% |
H2H · Alex De Minaur 1 – 0 Flavio Cobolli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 1–0 Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/24 Australian Open | 3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Karen Khachanov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 02/07 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Mariano Navone Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 15/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-28 | L |
| 03/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/06 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
| 30/05 | Learner Tien French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 28/05 | Yibing Wu French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Andrea Pellegrino French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 65% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.