Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 06/07, 12:00
Prediction: Madison Keys vs Linda Noskova
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Madison Keys; the market gives 59% to Madison Keys (odds 1.61).
Recent form leaves Madison Keys with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Linda Noskova has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madison Keys 1617 · Linda Noskova 1597
| Madison Keys | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Linda Noskova dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Note: Linda Noskova makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Madison Keys | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 90% (10) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-8.2 | 12.2-9.1 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80.8% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 49.2% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.1
Over 23.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 58% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madison Keys
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Sorana Cirstea Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Camila Osorio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Ella Seidel Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Diane Parry WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Maria Sakkari French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madison Keys vs Linda Noskova?
Our model gives 56% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.