Tennis · M15 Umag · 05/07, 11:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Angelini vs Luca Castagnola
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Lorenzo Angelini; the market gives 63% to Lorenzo Angelini (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Lorenzo Angelini with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Luca Castagnola has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Angelini 1567 · Luca Castagnola 1542
| Lorenzo Angelini | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Angelini | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-7.1 | 12.1-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 38.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-1 | W |
| 03/07 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Henry Best M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Dali Blanch Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 15/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Louis Dussin Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Angelini vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 58% to Lorenzo Angelini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.