Tennis · M15 Umag · 04/07, 16:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Matyas Cerny
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Matyas Cerny; the market gives 72% to Matyas Cerny (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Luca Castagnola with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Matyas Cerny has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
64%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1514 · Matyas Cerny 1536
| Luca Castagnola | Matyas Cerny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Matyas Cerny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.2 | 11.3-8.5 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Niklas Schell M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Matyas Cerny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Pietro Orlando Fellin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Jou-George Gnjidic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Leonardo Angeloni M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Max Frohlich M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/05 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Roman Postolka M25 Louny · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/05 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi M25 Louny · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/05 | Franco Ribero Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Matyas Cerny?
Our model gives 64% to Matyas Cerny, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.