Tennis · M15 Umag · 03/07, 16:00

Prediction: Andrej Martin vs Lorenzo Bocchi

Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Andrej Martin; the market gives 75% to Andrej Martin (odds 1.25).

On recent form, Andrej Martin is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lorenzo Bocchi 6-4 over theirs.

64%1
64% 36%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Andrej Martin 1553 · Lorenzo Bocchi 1552
Andrej MartinLorenzo Bocchi
Our model50%50%
Market75%25%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Statistics

Andrej MartinLorenzo Bocchi
Win %70%70%
Win % · Clay 70% (10) 70% (10)
Sets (G-P)1.5-0.91.5-0.7
Games (G-P)12.6-10.211.8-8.6
Aces3.12.5
Double faults2.73
1st serve %69.2%64.3%
Break %51.2%57.6%
Estimated total games (ours) 21.8

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Andrej Martin

WLLWW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
02/07 Ivan Biletic
M15 Umag · ~Clay
2-0 12-4 W
01/07 Vito Antonio Darderi
M15 Umag · ~Clay
2-0 12-6 W
16/06 Adrien Burdet
M25 Klosters · ~Clay
1-2 15-15 L
10/06 Petr Brunclik
Challenger Bratislava · Clay
0-2 10-13 L
09/06 Tiago Pereira
Challenger Bratislava · Clay
2-1 17-14 W
08/06 Alex Marti Pujolras
Challenger Bratislava · Clay
2-1 16-11 W
07/06 Daniel Michalski
Challenger Bratislava · Clay
2-1 16-15 W
02/06 Vit Kopriva
Challenger Prostejov · Clay
0-2 4-12 L
01/06 Daniel Dutra Da Silva
Challenger Prostejov · Clay
2-0 12-6 W
31/05 Tomasz Berkieta
Challenger Prostejov · Clay
2-0 12-6 W

Lorenzo Bocchi

WLWLW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
02/07 Nicolo Toffanin
M15 Umag · ~Clay
2-0 12-2 W
25/06 Filiberto Fumagalli
M15 Bergamo · ~Clay
0-2 5-13 L
23/06 William Mirarchi
M15 Bergamo · ~Clay
2-0 12-3 W
15/06 Alexander Weis
Challenger Parma · Clay
0-2 10-13 L
14/06 Sergio Callejon Hernando
Challenger Parma · Clay
2-0 12-7 W
07/06 Ruslan Tiukaev
M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay
2-0 12-6 W
06/06 Daniil Sarksian
M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay
2-1 16-10 W
05/06 Attila Dominik Boros
M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay
1-1 12-14 L
04/06 Alan Aiukhanov
M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay
2-0 12-7 W
02/06 Hendrik Thada Grohbruegge
M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay
2-1 15-11 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Andrej Martin vs Lorenzo Bocchi?

Our model gives 64% to Andrej Martin, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.