Prediction: Jonas Kucera vs Luca Castagnola
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Jonas Kucera; the market gives 65% to Luca Castagnola (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Jonas Kucera with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Luca Castagnola has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jonas Kucera 1532 · Luca Castagnola 1504
| Jonas Kucera | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jonas Kucera | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.7 | 11.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 65% |
| Break % | 58.2% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jonas Kucera
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 01/07 | Peter Fajta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Oskari Paldanius M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/01 | Filippo Romano M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/01 | Rodrigo Alujas M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 21/01 | Matyas Fuele M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/10 | Vladyslav Orlov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Alex Michael M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Samir Hamza Reguig M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 08/10 | Makar Krivoshchekov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Niklas Schell M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Matic Hribar M15 Litija · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jonas Kucera vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 56% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.