Tennis · M15 Umag · 02/07, 17:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Tomasz Berkieta
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Tomasz Berkieta; the market gives 69% to Tomasz Berkieta (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Luca Castagnola sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Tomasz Berkieta arrives on a 4-6 run.
64%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1477 · Tomasz Berkieta 1527
| Luca Castagnola | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomasz Berkieta (rating 1477 vs 1527).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.6 | 10.9-9.1 |
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 26.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Niklas Schell M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Matic Hribar M15 Litija · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/05 | Arthur Nagel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Tomasz Berkieta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Tobia Grandinetti M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | Aleksandar Tolev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/06 | Edison Ambarzumjan Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Andrej Martin Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Marko Bekeni Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Tomasz Berkieta?
Our model gives 64% to Tomasz Berkieta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.