Prediction: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Marie Bouzkova; the market gives 43% to Marie Bouzkova (odds 2.20).
Over their last 10 matches, Marie Bouzkova sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Elise Mertens arrives on a 4-6 run.
| Marie Bouzkova | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Bouzkova (rating 1612 vs 1549).
- Marie Bouzkova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Marie Bouzkova | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 90% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-8.6 | 9.7-8.8 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 41% | 49.2% |
H2H · Marie Bouzkova 1 – 1 Elise Mertens (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marie Bouzkova 1–1 Elise Mertens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 WTA Dubai | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 02/07 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Talia Gibson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Hannah Klugman WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 50% to Marie Bouzkova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.