Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 06/07, 12:00
Prediction: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Ashlyn Krueger; the market gives 64% to Marta Kostyuk (odds 1.50).
Over their last 10 matches, Ashlyn Krueger sits at 9-1 (W-L), while Marta Kostyuk arrives on a 7-3 run.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ashlyn Krueger 1640 · Marta Kostyuk 1605
| Ashlyn Krueger | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Ashlyn Krueger 1–0 Marta Kostyuk (1).
- Note: Ashlyn Krueger makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Ashlyn Krueger | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (10) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.4 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-8.9 | 13.2-8.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 4 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.5
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Ashlyn Krueger 1 – 0 Marta Kostyuk (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashlyn Krueger 1–0 Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/25 WTA Adelaide | 2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ashlyn Krueger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Daria Snigur Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/06 | Donna Vekic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 25/06 | Polina Iatcenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Mai Hontama Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/06 | Gabriela Knutson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/06 | Celine Naef WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Viktorija Golubic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Katie Volynets French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/05 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk?
Our model gives 55% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.