Prediction: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; the market gives 64% to Felix Auger Aliassime (odds 1.50).
Over their last 10 matches, Felix Auger Aliassime sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrives on a 8-2 run.
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (rating 1570 vs 1623).
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Felix Auger Aliassime 5–1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (6).
Statistics
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.9 | 2.1-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-12.7 | 14.5-9.6 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 81.5% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 39.6% |
H2H · Felix Auger Aliassime 5 – 1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felix Auger Aliassime 5–1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/25 Australian Open | 2-3 | 22-30 | L |
| 29/06/23 The Boodles | 2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 23/02/23 ATP Doha | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/05/22 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/01/22 Australian Open | 3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 02/04/18 Challenger Alicante | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 15/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 01/06 | Alejandro Tabilo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Corentin Moutet ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Cameron Norrie ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
Our model gives 54% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.