Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 05/07, 12:00
Prediction: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Coco Gauff; the market gives 53% to Coco Gauff (odds 1.80).
Over their last 10 matches, Belinda Bencic sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Coco Gauff arrives on a 8-2 run.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Belinda Bencic 1545 · Coco Gauff 1555
| Belinda Bencic | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Belinda Bencic 1–5 Coco Gauff (6).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Belinda Bencic | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9 | 13.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 71% |
| Break % | 51% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.90
H2H · Belinda Bencic 1 – 5 Coco Gauff (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Belinda Bencic 1–5 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/26 WTA Miami | 1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 30/09/25 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 28/04/25 WTA Madrid | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/01/25 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/08/23 WTA Washington | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Belinda Bencic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Anna Kalinskaya Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/07 | Xinyu Wang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Mika Stojsavljevic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/05 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/05 | Peyton Stearns French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Caty McNally French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/05 | Sinja Kraus French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/05 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/04 | Hailey Baptiste WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Mayar Sherif French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Taylor Townsend French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/05 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 52% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.