Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Aryna Sabalenka; the market gives 66% to Aryna Sabalenka (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Aryna Sabalenka with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Naomi Osaka has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6 aces and 55.5% break avg.
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 53% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 5–1 Naomi Osaka (6).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 100% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.8 | 12.5-7.6 |
| Aces | 6 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 55.5% | 53% |
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 5 – 1 Naomi Osaka (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 5–1 Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/26 French Open Women | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/04/26 WTA Madrid | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 10/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/12/25 Others | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/12/25 Others | 2-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 03/09/18 US Open Women | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Daria Kasatkina French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Elsa Jacquemot French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Iva Jovic French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Donna Vekic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 59% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.