Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 05/07, 12:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Jessica Pegula; the market gives 62% to Jessica Pegula (odds 1.53).
Over their last 10 matches, Jessica Pegula sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Iva Jovic arrives on a 8-2 run.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1587 · Iva Jovic 1571
| Jessica Pegula | Iva Jovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 2–0 Iva Jovic (2).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Iva Jovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 86% (7) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.7 | 12.4-8.4 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 51.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Jessica Pegula 2 – 0 Iva Jovic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 2–0 Iva Jovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 WTA Charleston | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/02/26 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Darja Vidmanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Kimberly Birrell French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Iga Swiatek WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Iva Jovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Ekaterina Alexandrova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Tatjana Maria Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/05 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Emma Navarro French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/05 | Alexandra Eala French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic?
Our model gives 58% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.