Prediction: Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Jannik Sinner; the market gives 95% to Jannik Sinner (odds 1.02).
On recent form, Jannik Sinner is 9-1 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Shintaro Mochizuki 7-3 over theirs.
76%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jannik Sinner 1617 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1596
| Jannik Sinner | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 95% | 5% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jannik Sinner dominates on serve: 10 aces and 48.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Jannik Sinner | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (3) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-0.6 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.8-11.4 | 16-13.4 |
| Aces | 10 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.3 · Bet365 line 27.5
Over 27.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 27.5: 51% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jannik Sinner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-21 | W |
| 28/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/05 | Clement Tabur French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/05 | Andrey Rublev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/06 | Sander Jong ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 76% to Jannik Sinner, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.